The fear of climate
change has been getting more and more attention over the past two decades, but
I believe that this has happened before in Earth’s history as part of its ever
changing environment. Geographers have
determined that the Earth does in fact go through a cycle of heating and
cooling, and the Earth is currently moving out of a cold period. Part of transitioning to a warmer period is
the melting of the Earth’s glaciers, which is happening in places like
Afghanistan. With the retreating
glaciers in mind I will hypothesize on what will happen to Afghanistan’s
geography over the next 1,000 years, 10,000 years, and 100,000 years.
Hypothesis: 1,000 years
is a very long time in regards to a human’s life time, but when it comes to
Earth’s life time, 1,000 years isn’t such a big deal. I believe there will still be significant
changes in places like Afghanistan, and one of the greatest changes will be the
melting of Afghanistan’s glaciers in the Wakhan Corridor and in other regions
of the Hindu Kush. In 1,000 years most
of the 30 glaciers in the Wakhan Corridor will be gone, with maybe one or two
remaining, but those will be gone soon. Glacial
lakes will form high in the mountains close to where the glacier had stopped
and started to recede. There will be
very few areas of snow, called “snow cups”, that last year round. The streams that carry the winter run off,
that the Afghans rely on for irrigation, will grow into much larger and quicker
moving streams due to the addition of the glacial runoff. The valleys that benefit from the runoff
water will see an increase of vegetation, for a short time before the water
disappears completely.
Currently 28
of the 30 glaciers in the Wakhan Corridor are receding at an average of 36 feet
per year.[1] Even at this rate it would still take almost
500 years for some of those 30 glaciers to melt completely due to their enormous
size. The increased runoff will keep the
river valleys green, but as they do now these streams and rivers will eventually
evaporate in the salt flats of western Afghanistan.
Arrows are pointing at new Glacial Lakes in the Hindu Kush, formed from glacial melting between 2000 and 2007
Hypothesis: In 10,000
years Afghanistan’s geography will have significantly changed, and it’ll be for
the worst. By this time Afghanistan’s
glaciers will only be a memory, and along with them all the water the glaciers
held. Mass Wasting and erosion will
dominate the more semi arid regions, while the large deserts will continue to
be deserts. Despite the Mass Wasting and
erosion the mountains will be taller and more jagged than they already are. There will be very few plant and animal
species able to live in this environment.
Because the
Hindu Kush Mountains are mostly granite, grus will flush down the steep
mountain sides, leaving behind large “stone gardens” of rounded and smoothed
core stones. With the last millimeters
of moisture, Frost weathering and Expansion and Contraction weathering will
contribute to the erosion. Because of
the mountains high mineral content, Salt weathering will also take place. The Hindu Kush was formed around 70 million
years ago when the Indo-Australian Plate collided with the Eurasian Plate.[2] The convergent boundary formed by this
collision will continue to push the mountains higher while erosion makes the
peaks steeper and more jagged.
Hypothesis: I can’t begin to understand how long 100,000
years is, and I don’t think any humans will be around to see what Afghanistan
looks like in that amount of time. There
will be no moisture of any kind, no vegetation, and no organism will be able to
survive in the environment. Extremely
tall spires will stretch 30,000 feet into the sky surrounded by sand for as far
as you can see. So, kind of like the
landscape for the 1984 movie “Dune” mixed with the Atacama Desert.
It’s a cynical way to look at the future of
Afghanistan, but who really knows for sure what will happen in 100,000
years. We do know that the glaciers are
melting, temperatures are getting higher, and less moisture is falling from the
skies. Because of erosion, mass wasting
and lack of water in the future, Earth will look more like Mars, let’s just
hope that the human species has found a way to create an ozone around mars so
we can live there until Earth changes cycles again and once again becomes
inhabitable.
[1] Haritashya,; Bishop,
Shroder, Andrew, Bush, Bulley (2009). "Space-based
assessment of glacier fluctuations in the Wakhan Pamir, Afghanistan"
(PDF). Climate Change 94 (1–2): 5–18.
